is ukraine winning the war

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If the Russian forces massed on Ukraine’s border invade, it will be because Putin has decided to show Russians, Ukrainians and the world that he has the power and the will to impose autocracy not just at home, but at gunpoint in foreign, sovereign states. Most in Ukraine want a legitimate government in Kyiv to close this chapter and begin restoring order in the country. Read also Russia warns Ukraine against new warship crossings via Kerch Strait This is conventional wisdom in Russia, even among liberals. The remaining question is whether Russia’s efforts to improve its bargaining position in Ukraine and the interim government’s efforts to contain this sponsored separatism will lead to an escalation of the conflict. Russia’s natural preference is that Ukraine, and by implication, the West, continue to be responsible financially for whatever happens in the country. Besides, playing the middle has always been Ukraine’s political area of expertise. But, after 23 years of chaotic post-Soviet independence, Ukraine now has a wired and educated civil society prepared to fight for democracy and a leadership that knows how the West works and wants to emulate it. The following is an incomplete list of major wars fought by Ukraine, by Ukrainian people or regular armies during periods when independent Ukrainian states existed, from antiquity to the present day. They’ve been hopping up and down and huffing and puffing at the contact line for more than a year, but they haven’t dared try to start anything. No to Capitulation!’ shouted an angry crowd outside Mr Zelensky’s presidential office this weekend. And in the years since 1991, when Ukraine gained its independence from the USSR, industrial paralysis and subsequent war have left many to romanticize the old Soviet order. ... launch an offensive and is leading many to question whether Ukraine has sufficient forces to fight a more free-wheeling war in the east. Like a chess master, perhaps the U.S. always needs to think a few moves ahead and reset our resolve after the exhaustion of the first Cold War and the tailspin following the proxy wars. Europe Russia and Ukraine in 2019: More conflict ahead? “The differences between Ukrainian and Russian people are cosmetic,” he wrote in a recent blog post. In the historic fight over the future of democracy in Ukraine, Kyiv is winning and the Kremlin is losing. That pattern has now led to possibly as many as 45,000 Russian troops once again massed on Ukraine’s border, as Moscow considers how to check the success of the Ukrainian military in re-establishing control over the eastern Donbass region where Russian-backed fighters have been trying and failing for months to create a breakaway republic. The May 25 presidential election, in which Petro Poroshenko, a Russian-speaking centrist businessman from the south, won a strong majority on the first ballot in a field of 17 candidates, gave the lie to that putative threat. If Kyiv was to attempt a serious assault on the separatist regions, it would result in civilian casualties, and could precipitate either a Russian invasion, or spark a genuine civil war in those regions. Less than 48 hours after Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down, an international group of some 200 experts was gathering in Kyiv to work on a comprehensive reform plan. It does not want the interim government in Kyiv to have control and legitimacy in Russian-speaking areas, but it also does not want the country descending into civil war. Hence, Vladimir Putin will have the opportunity to be publicly for the May 25 election, and also dispute its results if Kyiv is not amenable to negotiations. He simply wants the West to reserve the truly damaging sanctions for a potential phase of this conflict that he does not plan on entering. That may sound like a simple question, but it isn't. The separate section contains list of wars involving Crimean Tatars' states. Western sympathies rest largely with Ukraine. That may sound like a simple question, but it isn't. Passing laws about academic freedom while your country is being invaded might seem like fiddling while Rome burns, but this double act is at the heart of what is happening now in Ukraine. The Russo-Ukrainian War (Ukrainian: російсько-українська війна, romanized: rosiisko-ukrainska viina) is a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine that began in February 2014. Moscow is also eager for a government that it can recognize, and one that could conclude the arrangements it desires. Answer May Shock You! Our chance of winning is that Russia becomes bogged down in this conflict, wastes loads of resources, and deflates. This date cannot come sooner, since the continued crisis has spawned a veritable menagerie of paramilitary groups in support of and against the current government in Kyiv. Ukraine’s new media. The message was clear: Russia will ultimately prove victorious as it did in WWII, though it may have to go through great hardship in the interim. -- Kenneth Rapoza, Forbes. Some analysts have already concluded that Russia’s confrontation with the West could lead to a rapid decline in Russian power and the revival of NATO’s sense of purpose. Western sympathies rest largely with Ukraine. But, nearly invisibly, the war is also being waged along a third dimension: intelligence. Ukraine’s third success is the consolidation of its post-revolutionary government. Russia then attempted to replicate the Crimean scenario in the geographic arc running from its satrap Transniestria in the southwest, along the Black Sea coast, then north to Kharkiv in the east. Still, all of these long-term scenarios must be of little comfort to Ukraine, which is steadily descending into organized, and disorganized, chaos. During “Cold War II” (not generally acknowledged), the U.S. has stayed primarily on the periphery of global crises with Syria, Sebastopol, Crimea, Georgia, and the Ukraine. That may sound like a simple question, but it isn’t. Russia’s bellicose brinksmanship has made Ukraine’s eastern border the world’s most dangerous tripwire—it is no exaggeration to worry we could be on the edge of the greatest conflict since the World War II. Already, Kyiv has recaptured about 75 percent of the territory once held by the separatists. American and European leaders have set them as the next goal post for a new phase of sanctions against Russia. By Christopher Harress @Charress 02/24/15 AT 2:06 PM. The separate section contains list of wars involving Crimean Tatars' states. On July 31, President Poroshenko signed a new education law, drafted in large part by professors and students, many of whom were active on the Maidan, granting universities more autonomy from the central government and introducing a Western-style system of graduate degrees. For both Moscow and Kyiv, TV is the key to winning the hearts and minds of Ukrainians. It also gives Russia the option of playing a spoiler after the elections if Ukraine does not appear willing to compromise on demands for federalism. It depicts the crisis in Putin’s own macho terms. But who is winning the ‘information war’? Pro-Russian Rebels Are Winning The East Ukraine War, But When Will They Stop? These demonstrations, which followed the February–March 2014 annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federat… Then, Putin believed his own myth of an ethnically divided Ukraine. It also depends on the definition of "war". The Alliance are winning. The war in Ukraine is more devastating than you know A Ukrainian fighter stands in a building damaged by shelling in Avdiivka, Ukraine, on Feb. 4, 2017. But will Putin invade? Of course, this parade may prove to be the high-water mark in the recent surge of Russian patriotism and Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings. Here's the question, not of the day, but of the month: Who's Winning the War in Ukraine? That reality is obscured by the lazy shorthand that often frames the conflict in eastern Ukraine as a Yugoslav-style civil war, driven by ancient cultural, linguistic and religious divisions. With two elections next year, Ukraine is facing upheaval on the domestic front. 1 Nov 2014. That, of course, is what makes Ukraine doubly important. Ukraine could only have avoided this struggle by not choosing democracy, or by failing in the effort to build it. But in determining how to respond, it is essential to understand this standoff has been created by the surprising and growing strength of Ukrainian democracy—and by Vladimir Putin’s refusal to allow a peaceful democracy to exist on his western border. To recognize them now could both preclude a deal with Kyiv after the election and inherently make Russia responsible for their fate. That question leads to a second question "In whose eyes?" Another important point to note is that Ukraine’s national consolidation includes its business elite. Ukraine’s future is being determined by an unpredictable battle for leverage on the ground, which has been ongoing ever since Russia annexed Crimea, and will continue until the May 25 election in Ukraine. But both sides are still are their limits and rapidly losing strength. With two elections next year, Ukraine is facing upheaval on the domestic front. Their reign is a partial occupation, based on individual buildings their gunmen have seized and camped out in, and roadside checkpoints. Kiev doesn’t seem to think so. Few Ukrainians would agree. What does Russian President Vladimir Putin want from Ukraine? by Michael Kofman Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parade was a special occasion this year intended to mark not just the defeat of Germany in World War … This is a young country swiftly uniting around the democratic idea in the face of foreign aggression. It also depends on the definition of "war".And it also depends on the definition of "win".And finally it depends on which media source you believe. Such a step is difficult to reverse, but the threat to recognize them has a long shelf life. To understand the scale of that achievement, here is the last group of Russians who were not ruled by khans, czars, communist chairmen, or KGB generals: the Free Novgorod Republic. But, nearly invisibly, the war is also being waged along a third dimension: intelligence. After May 11, Vladimir Putin added the possibility of recognizing the independence referendums held by separatists as yet another chip of leverage to trade away at the negotiating table. More importantly, many in the West are convinced that Vladimir Putin’s true intentions are to disrupt the upcoming elections. But the war is real and still taking lives, and a … Ukraine’s new media. On the frontline of Europe’s forgotten war in Ukraine Four years after Russia backed the cause of separatist rebels, the death toll stands at 10,000. It also includes wars fought outside of Ukraine by Ukrainian military. Absorbing Crimea is already a significant burden on the Russian state, likely to cost billions. The fight in the Donbass is a continuation of the battle against a liberal Russia that Putin began when he arrived in the Kremlin in 2000. After the independence referendums held in Luhansk and Donetsk on May 11, that is as inevitable an outcome as it is unpalatable in Western capitals. But not a single significant business leader anywhere in the country—including the Donbass—is backing the Russia-led rebels. China is winning the war in Ukraine. “They [the Ukrainians] are the first large group of ethnic ‘Russians’ who become free on their own power and valor. Will the world’s democracies stand by and let Putin have his way? It is fought with guns and rockets on the ground and with warnings and sanctions at the negotiating table. Next, Putin underestimated Ukrainian civil society. No matter how hard Putin tries to spin it (or to turn from attack line into a reality), Ukraine isn’t a failed state, prey to domestic extremists and weakened by civil war. The notion that all of Ukraine can be pulled into a Western orientation now appears unrealistic and naïve. That may sound like a simple question, but it isn’t. The war has centered around the status of the Ukrainian regions of Crimea and Donbass. Ukraine is winning the war. It also depends on the definition of "war". But who is winning the ‘information war’? The front page news everywhere you look says Ukraine is winning. That may sound like a simple question, but it isn't. But just because the Western countries like Ukraine doesn’t mean they’re willing to help them. In fact, the fight in Ukraine is almost entirely a political and even ideological struggle. Russia’s only interest in recognizing them would be if it wanted to invade Ukraine by staging a request for intervention from the newly minted “Donetsk People’s Republic”. This crisis is not about an American power play in the former Soviet Union— indeed, it often seems as if President Barack Obama privately wishes Ukraine’s democracy revolution would just fade away. Here’s how Max Skibinsky, a Russian Silicon Valley venture capitalist, describes it. Otherwise, it appears that all it has to answer Russia are punitive sanctions, which thus far have proven completely ineffective, and those that might be effective must be kept in reserve as a contingency. In the near term, Ukrainian and Western policies are increasingly divergent in nature. This is a moderating factor, because Russia is not interested in general, disorganized chaos and instability in Ukraine. Moscow realizes this, and it also sees that it is Western leaders who need a policy “off-ramp” in the crisis. That serves nobody’s purpose in Ukraine. Is Russia outgunning Ukraine in the ‘information war’? Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt and Syria have taught us that even in conflicts where it is easy to spot the villain, virtuous actors can be much harder to find, and effective virtuous actors can be rarer still. It just has to be strong enough to keep Russia from winning — that is, from embarking on a massive land war or compelling Ukraine by means of a costly war … © Copyright 2020 Center for the National Interest All Rights Reserved, Recent polling suggests that 63% of Ukrainians in the east believe the elections will be unfair, compared with 59% in the west, who have a positive outlook. That question leads to a second question "In whose eyes?" The Kremlin started by sending in “little green men,” as the Russian troops infiltrating Ukraine wearing uniforms but no official government ID have come to be called, to Crimea. Ultimately, whoever is elected in Kyiv will have to agree to a compromise with Moscow on the degree of structural influence it will be given in Ukraine. Here’s how Max Skibinsky, a Russian Silicon Valley venture capitalist, describes it. The casualty numbers continue to rise without any tangible gains. Ukraine’s interim leaders have no intention of sparking a war, or a bloodbath, with so little time left on their political clock. The tragic paradox for Kyiv is that each democratic success has made it more vulnerable to a further Russian escalation. It’s all about gas “Ukraine is winning the info war in the West,” Mark Galeotti—a professor of foreign affairs at New York University and an expert on Russia—told War … Moscow has spent the past month orchestrating events in Ukraine to leverage such a deal into existence; a work that appears largely complete. Ukraine’s new leaders aren’t angels. At the moment, Russia holds most of the cards it needs to secure the original terms of its proposal for a compromise on Ukraine. The erstwhile Ukrainian president proved too weak and too unpopular to do the job, eventually opting to flee the country that had elected him less than four years earlier. There is more chatter out of Eastern Ukraine that suggests Kiev might be willing to give in to the separatists’ demands of regional autonomy. The truth is that everybody lost. But Ukrainians have now seen both Western democracy and Putin’s post-Soviet kleptocracy up close. Ukraine is busily conducting “counterterrorism operations,” but it has become increasingly obvious that these are a veneer to mask Kyiv’s lack of interest in contesting the Russian-supported insurgency. That question leads to a second question "In whose eyes?" The increasing pressure that he thought would disperse the Maidan instead inspired ever greater resolve, ending with a willingness to march directly into sniper fire. Answer May Shock You! That may sound like a simple question, but it isn't. Like a chess master, perhaps the U.S. always needs to think a few moves ahead and reset our resolve after the exhaustion of the first Cold War and the tailspin following the proxy wars. This confounding juxtaposition of policy statements suggests that the only purpose to such operations is as a demonstration to the West that they are backing a government willing to fight for its territory, and able to confront Russian meddling. From the beginning of March 2014, in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution and the Euromaidan movement, protests by Russia-backed anti-government separatist groups took place in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, collectively called the "Donbass". Finally, as with Yanukovych, Putin has tragically overestimated his proxies in the separatist leadership of the Donbass. May 25 is rapidly approaching, marking a period when the dynamic in Ukraine changes and the battle for influence with it. There'll be no end to the war between Russia and Ukraine while it suits political elites on both sides to keep fighting. This isn’t about Russian speakers vs. Ukrainian speakers—an absurd idea in a country so at ease with its nearly universal bilingualism that everything from television interviews to jokes to parliamentary debates are conducted in an easy back-and-forth between Ukrainian and Russian. Further Russian escalation is, of course, the great uncertainty, particularly this week, as Ukrainian forces close in on the Russian-led separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk and the Kremlin has masses troops on Ukraine’s border. Ukraine crisis: How Vladimir Putin is winning the psychological war. It also includes wars fought outside of Ukraine by Ukrainian military. The Friday Cover is POLITICO Magazine's email of the week's best, delivered to your inbox every Friday morning. Ukraine’s political culture has no messianic or imperialist strain, and today building democracy at home is more than enough to keep the country’s leaders busy. Both would prove disastrous for Ukraine. The regime was hollowed out by corruption, infiltrated by Kremlin agents, and its coffers emptied by theft from the top. Ukrainians didn’t elect Poroshenko for his charisma or his barnstorming speeches. How did the war in Ukraine start? Is Russia outgunning Ukraine in the ‘information war’? In the historic fight over the future of democracy in Ukraine, Kyiv is winning and the Kremlin is losing. Pro-Russian Rebels Are Winning The East Ukraine War, But When Will They Stop? Is Russia Winning Ukraine 'War'? Ukrainians aren’t fighting only for their sovereignty—which would be good enough cause—they are fighting for what they call the new Ukraine, which they are simultaneously trying to build. The truth is that everybody lost. President Turchynov vacillates between stating that his government is effectively helpless to restore order in the East, and vowing that counterterrorism operations will continue. The Russo-Ukrainian War (Ukrainian: російсько-українська війна, romanized: rosiisko-ukrainska viina) is a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine that began in February 2014. Putin has sought to portray Ukraine as a failed state, and in his collaboration with Yanukovych he came close to making that rhetoric reality. Ukraine’s military has thus far proven undependable, and appears to have been hollowed out of any serious operational capability. During that fragile interregum, Russia worked hard to undermine the new Ukraine. In a recent interview, Verkhovna Rada Speaker Andriy Paraubiy said the European Union decision to extend sanctions against Russia for its aggression against Ukraine is a sign that Ukraine is winning the information war against Russia. There are dozens of examples from the past few weeks of Kiev trouncing Moscow in the information war. Recent polling suggests that 63% of Ukrainians in the east believe the elections will be unfair, compared with 59% in the west, who have a positive outlook. Here’s how Max Skibinsky, a Russian Silicon Valley venture capitalist, describes it. That may sound like a simple question, but it isn't. The West needs visible action on the ground to validate its policies and support for Ukraine. https://www.politico.com/.../story/2014/08/kiev-is-winning-the-war-109935 “The differences between Ukrainian and Russian people are cosmetic,” he wrote in a recent  blog post. That question leads to a second question “In whose eyes?” It also depends on the definition of “war“.And it also depends on the definition of “win“.And finally it depends on which media source you believe. During “Cold War II” (not generally acknowledged), the U.S. has stayed primarily on the periphery of global crises with Syria, Sebastopol, Crimea, Georgia, and the Ukraine. There is more chatter out of Eastern Ukraine that suggests Kiev might be willing to give in to the separatists’ demands of regional autonomy. The fog of war, the ADHD of cable news and the smears of Russian propaganda have combined to obscure some important good news in this dismal summer. Here's the question, not of the day, but of the month: Who's Winning the War in Ukraine? On June 12, three T-72 tanks rolled through portions of eastern Ukraine. Its control over the two separatist regions is tentative at best. It is thus willing to support various frameworks for negotiations to keep the West occupied, and to watch Ukraine create a merry-go-round of counterterrorism operations that go nowhere. Parubiy is wrong and here are five reasons why. His efforts to provoke the Russian speakers of “Novorossia” into rebellion have instead strengthened their support for Ukraine, particularly in the crucial regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa and Kharkiv. 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